U.K. Had High Mortality Rate in 2022 Before the Heatwave

In July, the U.K. and a good portion of Western Europe experienced a severe heatwave the likes of which those countries hadn't seen for decades.

With temperatures over 40° celsius, or over 104° Fahrenheit, the heat led to thousand of deaths according to some reports in countries where air conditioning is uncommon. Politico estimated that there might be over 3,000 excess deaths. Spain is now limiting homes from setting air conditioning below 27° Celsius (81° Fahrenheit).

But according to provisional mortality data for the U.K. from the Office of National Statistics, the country was already seeing abnormal mortality rates in months prior—beginning at the end of April and through May and June of 2022. This was substantially higher than in June the previous two years when the pandemic was in full force.

The data is provisional and therefore subject to change, and it only indicates deaths that were recorded that week. The U.K. Office of National Statists also warns that classifying deaths related to high temperature days is “complicated.”

From each week in June-July in 2022, death counts were higher than every other year since 2015—even during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021—by about 1,200 on average. The same goes for most of May and the end of April (except for 2020/2021).

But unlike late July, there was no June heatwave.

Based on data from the U.K. Meteorological Office, the average for the U.K. in June was 15° Celsius. The weather was at worst balmy, yet there were substantially more deaths.

Average May 2022 temperatures were higher than usual, but not anomalously so. And not anywhere close to summer temperatures—the average was 12.8° Celsius, 55.04° Fahrenheit.

If an additional thousand deaths occurred in July on top of the already high mortality rate, it doesn't appear in the provisional data so far. Or it is related to another cause that began earlier.

Previous U.K. Heatwaves

This is not the first time heatwaves have been associated with a wave of mortality. Summer temperature spikes in 2020, 2003, and 2006 are associated with excess deaths in the range of 2,200-2,600 by the U.K. Health Security Agency.

While provisional data shows some slightly higher deaths counts in August of 2020, this was also in the midst of the pandemic so deaths may not be attributable to heat.

Heatwaves and Nursing Home Deaths

Not just the U.K., high temperatures have sometimes been associated with nursing home deaths in the U.S.

In 2017, a nursing home in Florida that lost air conditioning after Hurricane Irma led to the deaths of a dozen people. This eventually led to charges against the nursing home workers as the deaths were ruled a homicide.

In 2002, a Michigan state senator brought legislation that would require all nursing homes to have air conditioning after a heat wave led to some nursing home deaths.