Yet More Aberrations in CDC Mortality Data: The Drop in U.S. Life Expectancy

Throughout the world, a country’s life expectancy—an estimated age that the average person might live to—tends to increase over time outside of war zones and pandemics. Improvements to quality of life and access to medical care means that people live longer on average.

Yet the United States saw a distinct decline beginning around 2010 that would continue through 2016. The decline occurred despite continued growth in health care spending and the Affordable Care Act (ACA).

A Bloomberg School of Public Health report pointed to overdoses, gun-related homicide/suicide, teen suicide, motor vehicle crashes, heart disease, stroke, and diabetes as the cause.

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) pointed to overdoses, liver disease, and suicide rates. The Federal Drug Administration (FDA) commissioner pointed to health misinformation as the culprit.

While opioids, motor vehicle accidents, and teen suicides may have increased around that time, the largest changes in mortality rates are mainly for those over 80 years of age. Opioid overdoses, gun-related homicide, motor vehicle accidents, and teen suicides are not common causes of mortality for the elderly.

According to data from the CDC, the change in mortality rates—deaths per capita—also came on suddenly, not as a gradual increase as might be expected if it was historical quality of life issues leading to liver disease, diabetes, or stroke.

It was as if thousands of the elderly started succumbing to strokes and liver disease at an earlier age all at once. For those aged 80 to 84, it was back in 2004 that mortality rates went from declining to growing. For those 85 and older it flatlined starting in 2009.

Falls As a Growing Cause of Mortality

A Harvard University report included accidental injury as a culprit, which might be getting closer to an explanation as falls have been a fast growing cause of mortality for those over 85. But that trend goes back to before 2000, so it’s nothing new and wouldn’t really explain the change starting around 2006 or 2009.

While it might be expected that there would be more deaths due to falls with the growing elderly population, the numbers are hard to believe. The numbers have quadrupled in two decades. What was 4,601 deaths a year in 1999 for those over 85 is now 19,444 in 2020.

Other age groups have not seen the kind of increase in mortality like those over 80 are experiencing. Some of the younger cohorts, like those 65 to 69, have even seen declining mortality rates.

Growth in Average Age of Mortality

Despite the increasing mortality rate for those over 80, the average age at mortality has been increasing.

Using 4-year age groups, the average age at which people die each year went from 72-74 to 73-75 around the same time—beginning in 2006.

While this might be expected with a growing elderly population of the Boomer generation, the change came abruptly around 2006, like the change in mortality rate.

One of Many Oddities in CDC Mortality Data

Investigative Economics has previously highlighted numerous other oddities in the CDC’s mortality data, including the aberrations during the pandemic and the significant decline in mortality right before the pandemic.

The pandemic also helped reveal strange trends in individual diseases such as the stark changes in cervical cancer deaths, teen suicide, and heart disease.